Exponential growth.

"Exponential Growth"; a concept human beings will never appreciate nor fully understand. It is the process of accumulating very rapid growth in a short period of time, for instance:

2 x 2 = 4

However a simple calculation such as 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 = 64

We can see how by multiplying such small numbers together, we soon rack up some very big numbers indeed.

Here's another example. Just supposing we have a bank account that pays 5% interest per year.

We invest £100.

At the end of year one we have our original £100 + £5 interest giving us a balance of £105

Year two we take the £105 balance then add 5% interest (£5.25) which gives us £110.25. We continue the process as follows.

Year 3 £110.25 @ 5% interest = £115.76
Year 4 £115.76 @ 5% interest = £121.54
Year 5 £121.54 @ 5% interest = £127.62
Year 6 £127.63 @ 5% interest = £134.00
Year 7 £134.00 @5% interest = £140.70
Year 8 £140.70 @5% interest = £ 147.74
Year 9 £147.74 @ 5% interest = £155.13
Year 10 £155.13 @5% interest = £162.90
Year 11 £162.90 @5% interest = £171.05
Year 12 £171.05 @ 5% interest = £179.60
Year 13 £179.60 @5% interest = £188.58
Year 14 £188.85 @5% interest = £198.01
Year 15 £198.01 @5% interest = £207.91

So we can see that after 15 years of a modest 5% interest per year, our initial sum has doubled. This is called "compound interest" and it shows exponential growth by increasing a number by a percentage, then increasing the sum of the original number plus that percentage by another percentage and so on.

A 7% increase per year will mean the initial sum will double in 10 years.

If we take a 10% increase then the initial sum will double in roughly 7 years.

And, whether the timespan is years or days or centuries, the doubling will be the same pro rata.


So we can see that exponential growth has the potential to cause huge problems. Here are another couple of examples.


A headline saying a prison population will grow by 7% per year doesn't mean much, but saying a prison population will double in 10 years really hits home; and yet they mean the same thing.

The world economy doubles roughly every 28 years (about 3% per year), so exponential growth on a finite planet is impossible. Consequently, we will struggle to meet demands for raw materials very soon.

So when a politician talks about "economic growth at 3%" we feel this isn't a huge amount, but after 30 years it has the potential to double in size.

Another good example of exponential growth.

A bacteria sitting in a bottle doubles every minute and by 12 O'Clock the bottle is full. At what point is the bottle half full? 11:59 of course. The bacteria realise there is a problem at 11:57, when the bottle is just an eighth full and find a further three empty bottles. All that new space they breathe a sigh of relief, but at what point will all four bottles be full? 12:00 bottle one is full, 12:01 bottle 2 is now full and by 12:02 all four bottles are now full.


So how does this apply to us today?

Well, quite simply, we can see that in a short space of time with today's use of resources, exponential growth is a serious problem. Whatever sector you choose, the increases are dramatic. Population is a great example. The world population hit 1 billion in 1804. From the beginning of time until 1804, we only had an increase to 1 billion. Then in a mere 123 years to 1927 we hit 2 billion. Then it took just 33 years to hit 3 billion in 1960, then a mere 40 years to double from 3 billion to 6 billion people in 1999.

That is an exceptional statistic, and should make anyone pay attention to exponential growth.


But why did the population hit so high so quickly?

Some argue that it's advances in medical technology; some that it's the "green revolution" which was the use of mechanization and fertilisers in agriculture, but either way, this all has a common factor. The abundance of cheap fossil fuel energy.

We began to use coal in the 18th century as a fuel, which then gave rise to steam engines and hydraulics. The amount of energy packed in a sack of coal is phenominal, and inventions utilising this energy came thick and fast. Up until this point, we used animals to assist us with agriculture, but of course they are of limited use; the main problen being they get tired and can become ill.

Fossil fuels meant a machine could run indefinitely, and obediently. Even today we have steam engines still running that were built almost150 years ago.

When mechanization in agriculture increased the amount of food we could grow, consume and move around, and medicines based on petroleum products improved our healthcare, we had created the perfect storm for rapid population expansion.

Medicines dependent on oil? Yes indeed:

"Petrochemicals are used to manufacture analgesics, antihistamines, antibiotics, antibacterials, rectal suppositories, cough syrups, lubricants, creams, ointments, salves, and many gels. Processed plastics made with oil are used in heart valves and other esoteric medical equipment.

Petrochemicals are used in radiological dyes and films, intravenous tubing, syringes, and oxygen masks. In all but rare instances, fossil fuels heat and cool buildings and supply electricity. Ambulances and helicopter "life flights" depend on petroleum, as do personnel who travel to and from medical workplaces in motor vehicles. Supplies and equipment are shipped -- often from overseas -- in petroleum-powered carriers. In addition there are the subtle consequences of fossil fuel reliance."

http://www.alternet.org/health/57525

So it is safe to come to the conclusion, that thanks to fossil fuels, we live longer, multiply faster and eat more. And the more we increase the population, the more need for more "stuff" and the more need for jobs, houses, money etc etc etc.

So applying common sense to this scenario, what is the only thing that could halt this exponential existence?

Expensive fossil fuels. A decrease in the amount of fossil fuel available will increase the price which will put it out of reach for many people and many production systems. And oil is involved in everything that makes our world economy tick. Reduce the use of oil through either lack of it, rationing, price increases, in fact any way at all, and the world will begin a decline.

How does exponential growth apply to all this?

What goes up, must come down or so the saying goes. And as well as exponential growth, we also have exponential decline. If we double our economy by using 5% more fossil fuels every year, then the same occurs in reverse. If we lose 5% of our oil availabilty per year, then in just 15 years our oil supply has halved. Halving the oil supply means halving the economy, the abundance of food and probably sacariest of all, half the world population.

We currently increase our demand for oil by 2% per year, a tiny amount you may say, but remember those exponential growth figures? That means that in 35 years, we will have doubled the demand for oil at todays rate. If we cannot meet demand and the amount of oil we take out of the ground begins to decline, then the combination of 2% demand and 2% decline means that in a mere 17 years we will only be able to meet half the demand. This is potentially the most dangerous scenario human kind has ever faced.

Alternative energy - moving from fossil fuels.

Many people would argue that the increase in clean energy negates the increase in demand for fossil fuels. In simple terms, if we increase alternative energy sources by 2% per year then that will counteract the increase in demand for oil. Is it that simple?

Unfortunately not and for a number of reasons.

Firstly, that will only keep us at todays current consumption of approximately 85 million barrels per day or 40,000 gallons per second. In order to eat into that figure, we need to increase the alternative energy figure dramatically, however we have another problem.

Whilst wind turbines, solar arrays, hydro etc are wonderful concepts, our infrastructure depends on oil. There are no mass produced solar tractors, no electric sawmills; you get the idea. In fact, even if there were, we still need oil to make all the components that create wind turbines, solar arrays and electric cars. As an example, a single rubber car tyre takes 40 litres of oil to make and we haven't included the oil used to ship it, fit it or even repair it if we get a puncture.

Clean energy is unfortunately a folly in the current paradigm of the 21st century.

The answer?

There isn't one unfortunately. We can be sure of two things. 1) because of history, we know that the earth can sustain a human population of 1 billion and 2) oil is a finite resource. It may never "run out" but it will shift from a cheap energy to a very expensive energy, the questions are when, and how quickly?

My advice would be to prepare yourself as best you can. Get used to cheaper food, demand less "stuff" and start to learn basic skills.

As I have mentioned earlier, even if we could introduce alternative energy immediately, almost every product demands the use of oil, especially platics. So that new wind turbine needs a factory to create spare parts, and that requires a workforce, which require food and housing, which requires mechanized agriculture. I think we can see the problem is very clear.

So beware of exponential growth, because it creeps up like the tide on the beach and will catch us all by surprise very soon indeed.

Best regards to you and those you love.

Kieran.